Somaliland's three decades of success began with formative years free of brown colonialism. It must learn from that history, resist middle power manipulation and build capacity without aid.
Brown colonialism is Africa's new colonial phase. West Asian middle powers, including Qatar, Turkey, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, coerce countries lacking functioning governments and effective sovereignty to exploit their resources and strategic locations. Egypt was an early practitioner. Somaliland was one of its first victims.
Brown colonialism occupied the space white colonialism abandoned. Britain handed grazing territories to Ethiopia, then left Somaliland a mess, as when ending the British Mandate in the Middle East. It disregarded Somaliland's future. Egypt's opposition to Somaliland's sovereignty began in the 1950s, not 1991 or 2025. Gamal Abdel Nasser's influence tipped Somaliland's electoral politics towards union, drowning out advocates of independence. A later declassified CIA bulletin (archived copy) identified February 1960's victorious unionists as UAR supported. Cairo wanted a proxy. Sustaining conflict, pressuring Ethiopia and preventing it from controlling the Nile mattered more than Somali freedom or unity.
Ethiopia's dam changed the Nile balance, but Nasser's inherited policies survived. Cairo still wants Ethiopia cut off from the sea. Endless conflict with Ethiopia keeps Eritrea poor. Without national elections since independence, it serves as Cairo's barrier against Ethiopia. Its proxy value outweighs its people's prosperity. That is colonialism.
Unlike white colonialism, brown colonialism has no expected departure. Proximity and perceived existential threats make these powers demand permanent strategic arrangements, regardless of international law or local wishes. Whether Al Shabaab is defeated, Somalia's government succeeds or Somaliland wins recognition, Ankara wants Somalia as an extension of Turkish interests, with ever more space and military assets. Ankara's delusion extends into the Gulf of Aden and Berbera's prime real estate.
These powers are not identical. Some act strategically, others reactively. The UAE's relationship with Somaliland delivered commercial investment that strengthened its economy without demanding political subordination. Berbera's leading position among assessed Sub Saharan African ports in the World Bank's 2023 index shows the result. Had those investments brought war or diminished Somaliland's standing, I would call them colonialism. They did the opposite.
The UAE's overall intervention in Sudan can be criticised, yet as the only outside power it might have been decisive. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are too many cooks. White colonisers at least held conferences to negotiate their competing greed and define boundaries. In Yemen and Libya too, coordinated middle powers each focusing on one country could have reduced suffering. Today's scramble is worse, fighting over every inch without an agreed plan. Greed, jealousy and outbidding one another become the plan.
America must set criteria distinguishing responsible middle powers from brown colonisers, rather than celebrate every expansion as natural growth. Governments that disregard their own people's welfare, freedom and rights treat others worse. America needs regional partners to shoulder responsibilities, but Sudan shows what happens when Washington leaves them unchecked. A principled Sudan policy requires more than rhetoric, noninvolvement or the pretence of neutrality.
Despite shared interests and values, America neglected Somaliland while intervening in Iraq and Afghanistan. Brown colonisers may be copying earlier American administrations. Washington must lead by example.
Republicans championed Somaliland before Israel acted. Biden wasted years, and Israel recognised Somaliland first. Arab media recycled lies that recognition required Palestinian resettlement and military bases. Time exposed their false propaganda and vindicated Israel's principled position. Neither condition appeared in the recognition announcement. Israel respected Somaliland's people and elected government, with strategic returns following principled engagement and mutual respect.
America should recognise Somaliland and show regional powers how to gain a partner without acquiring a colony.